CDDS

"DDS is responsible for administering the Lanterman Developmental Disabilities Services Act and the Early Intervention Services Act. These laws ensure the coordination and provision of services and supports to enable persons with developmental disabilities to lead more independent, productive and integrated lives. In addition, these laws ensure the delivery of appropriate services to infants and toddlers at risk of having developmental disabilities and their families. DDS carries out its responsibilities through 21 community-based, non-profit corporations known as “regional centers” (RC) and State-operated facilities, including five State developmental centers (SDC) and two smaller facilities. For purposes of this publication, the two smaller facilities will be included in numbers reported for SDCs.

A “developmental disability” is a condition that originates before an individual reaches age 18; continues, or can be expected to continue indefinitely; and constitutes a substantial impairment in three or more areas of major life activity.1 Developmental disabilities include mental retardation, epilepsy, cerebral palsy, autism, and disabling conditions closely related to mental retardation or requiring treatment similar to that required by people with mental retardation. The service delivery system, which offers personalized supports, includes individuals with developmental disabilities, their families and/or legal representatives, advocacy and professional organizations, the State Council on Developmental Disabilities, direct service providers, SDCs, RCs, and DDS." - From the ''Department of Developmental Services Fact Book - Eighth Edition''
http://www.dds.ca.gov/factsstats/factbook.cfm

The California Department of Developmental Services (CDDS) publishes a Quarterly Client Characteristics Report.

1.  "New Cases" Issue

A common mistake is to assume that the difference in the numbers between quarters represents "New Cases". Net changes actually represent new cases minus drop-outs, as explained in the Data Interpretation and Considerations document.

It is unremarkable for net changes to drop as time goes by. A disability's caseload growth should normally match population growth in the state.

This is (a?) classic Rick Rollens error, which has been repeated by the Geiers in their latest paper (which will likely be retracted due to this mistake).

2.  Peculiarities of this data

• There are significant regional differences in caseload. Most of the 'epidemic' has occurred only in the Los Angeles area.

• Regional centers with low administrative prevalence have strong caseload growth (they are catching up). Regional centers with high administrative prevalence have a caseload that is closer to leveling off.

• The proportion of autistics in the population with mental retardation has increased by a factor of about 2 from 1992 to 2006. This change is likely administrative only, judging from proportions in different regional centers.

• Characteristics such as proportion of epilepsy, mental retardation and severe behaviors in autistics drop consistently as prevalence rises. (This is likely due to increasing recognition of autism in the population without mental retardataion, a factor which appears to act independently to diagnostic substitution).

• Diagnostic substitution has likely occurred, but demonstrating this clearly appears elusive at the moment.

• If epilepsy and mental retardation are considered co-morbidities of autism, it is notable that there is no rise in their prevalence.